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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0584

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 28 05:59:04 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 280558
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280558=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-280730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0584
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

    Areas affected...Southeastern South Dakota...Northern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 280558Z - 280730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to move east-northeastward
    across southeastern South Dakota and far northern Nebraska over the
    next few hours. Large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat are
    expected. Weather watch issuance will be needed to the east of the
    ongoing watch.

    DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a severe line
    segment from far northern Nebraska into far southern South Dakota.
    This line will move east-northeastward along a gradient of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/g range.
    In addition to the instability, warm advection and large-scale
    ascent associated with a shortwave trough will support the line over
    the next few hours. The latest VWP in northern Nebraska has 0-6 km
    shear of 40 to 45 knots, and a gradually veering wind with height in
    the low to mid-levels, suggesting that a severe threat will
    continue. Large hail and severe gusts will be likely within the
    stronger components of the line. Strong low-level shear will also
    support a tornado threat with embedded rotating cells within the
    line.

    ..Broyles/Mosier.. 04/28/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4LNbIHEqXQ08XDvMiUglM7NRuW0QtXsXAnqUotKfZ3U9U_-KAnbyHCYL38f6HwlVMABSYx585= FH3j2SaXQ5-DkZVqxk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42990067 42580055 42219999 42289906 42539767 42869694
    43279665 43899664 44299693 44569742 44629800 44289947
    43980035 43480067 42990067=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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