1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0579

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 27 22:18:30 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 272218
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272217=20
    SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-272345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0579
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0517 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of the northern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 272217Z - 272345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Supercell threat is increasing across the northern High
    Plains. New WW appears warranted.

    DISCUSSION...High-level diffluent flow has overspread the northern
    High Plains early this evening. Latest diagnostic data suggests a
    weak surface wave has developed over extreme northeast WY, which
    favors continued boundary-layer moistening into southeast MT over
    the next few hours. Latest satellite imagery suggests deepening
    towers over the higher terrain in southeast Big Horn County MT.
    Robust thunderstorms should mature and spread east just north of the aforementioned weak wave. Forecast soundings favor supercells, and
    with increasing boundary-layer moisture into the early evening
    hours, there appears to be some risk for tornadoes as dew points
    rise into the lower 50s.

    Convection is also deepening over the Black Hills within a wind
    profile that also favors supercells. Mid 50s surface dew points may
    spread west into this region which would aid buoyancy within a
    veering wind profile.

    New watch appears warranted across this region.

    ..Darrow/Guyer.. 04/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8STe_BwZ5OwwiCAtg_5S8L7rqXmlmVkPUscWcaBrxo65XXJgWv7YBNVeZWEz5D016LvjIKTMy= 74n6jJ9yc3CU6UK0c8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 44120359 44850434 45060587 45810547 45710323 44430220
    44120359=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)