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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0576

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 27 20:48:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 272047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272047=20
    KSZ000-272245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0576
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

    Areas affected...Western Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 272047Z - 272245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Watch issuance in western Kansas is currently unlikely.
    Significant severe would be possible if storms develop.
    Observational trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Periodic enhancement to the cumulus field in western
    Kansas has been noted in day cloud phase satellite imagery,
    primarily in the vicinity of Goodland. Low 60s F dewpoints ahead of
    the surface trough/modest dryline has allowed around 2500 J/kg
    MLCAPE to develop. With the generally weak dryline circulation and uncertain/subtle mid-level ascent, the development of deep
    convection is far from a given. Only the more aggressive of the CAM
    models suggests development later this afternoon. However, despite
    this uncertainty, the environment will be conditionally favorable
    for significant severe if storms can form. Supercells would be
    likely given 40-45 kts of effective shear perpendicular to the
    dryline. Furthermore, a strong increase in 850 mb winds after 00Z
    would support a tornado threat.

    Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time, but observational
    trends (including observed sounding data) will be monitored over the
    next few hours.

    ..Wendt/Smith.. 04/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!74CnlkSX7BSi3kXymWZJqrjnglOK5Aoxx9cisi5z7eMP5D6iTrZ-wDHaI8acrgpAnu-Sbu9Pn= _yL2F2ZUUWGLzjiWO4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 37040184 37250192 37800194 38500200 39840192 39930179
    39910146 39730088 38920051 37260066 37030095 37040184=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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