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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0575

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 27 20:29:28 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 272029
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272029=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0575
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

    Areas affected...2Nebraska Panhandle into the Sandhills and
    Southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 272029Z - 272230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercell potential should
    increase over the next 2-3 hours. Large/very-large hail and severe
    gusts will be possible. The tornado threat will initially be low,
    but will increase for storms persisting near/after sunset. Trends
    will be monitored for watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...As the lee trough continues to deepen this afternoon,
    clusters of cumulus clouds have begun to develop in northeast
    Colorado. With time and the approach of a shortwave trough, a
    surface low will become more evident in eastern Colorado. Low 60s F
    dewpoints have already reached parts of northwest Kansas and should
    continue north and west as low-level winds respond to the surface
    cyclone.

    Effective shear of around 45 kts across the trough axis will promote
    discrete storm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
    initially long, straight hodographs will promote a risk for
    large/very-large hail and severe winds. As the low-level jet
    increases this evening, any mature supercells ongoing will have an
    increased potential to produce a tornado. Storm coverage is somewhat
    uncertain, but isolated to widely scattered supercells appear
    possible given at least modest mid-level ascent expected over the
    next few hours.

    ..Wendt/Smith.. 04/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6_jryUHpMMUP9mk5IO5Lnyd_2FO7SVOUjcFVMfHIne3oTDQNUgBUR-zIg4zroLvlP-rC56enf= D8GOI3SkcKS-1DROgg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41180373 41710412 42850358 42740190 42150098 41420084
    40730085 40520156 40540220 40820308 41180373=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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