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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0571

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 26 22:16:58 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 262216
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262216=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-262345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0571
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0516 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

    Areas affected...Far West Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262216Z - 262345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed as a pair of
    supercells have developed along the dryline in the vicinity of the
    Trans-Pecos mountains. These storms will be capable of 2.00+ inch
    hail and 60-70 MPH wind gusts, though a tornado cannot be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms have developed along a dryline
    in the vicinity of the Trans-Pecos mountains, with 2500+ J/kg of
    MLCAPE to the east, and 45-50 kts of deep layer shear. Given
    boundary perpendicular shear vectors, supercell storm mode is likely
    to be maintained into the early evening hours. Primarily
    straight-line hodographs should favor splitting of supercells
    capable of large hail and damaging winds, particularly with left
    splits. Some meager low-level curvature of the hodograph from
    forecast proximity profiles, along with ML LCL heights around
    1100-1300 meters, could support tornado occurrence as well,
    especially as the nocturnal low-level jet increases low-level shear
    into the evening. However, the primary threat will be for 2.00+ inch
    hail and 60-70 MPH winds.

    ..Halbert/Guyer.. 04/26/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-jdgw9GiKmkUfzyQGaxEEaEUBJcssReXQRJVH88kifJiXbqfEdb7hNGW9atPk-SdCmurAN3Xh= eu-u_4IwHIYEGTrDtQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30030231 30250309 30650367 31140408 31720444 32050438
    32310375 32390292 32330247 32160179 31860156 31310137
    30880137 30430145 30210152 30040173 30030231=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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