ACUS11 KWNS 252314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252314=20
TXZ000-260115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0562
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Areas affected...parts of the South Plains

Concerning...Tornado Watch 172...

Valid 252314Z - 260115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues.

SUMMARY...A cyclic supercell continues to pose a large hail and
tornado risk northwest of the Lubbock area, and may persist for a
couple more hours as it move south/southeast.

DISCUSSION...A lone intense supercell continues to evolve along the
instability gradient, very near the LBB area. Surface observations
show cooler air spreading in from the east across the PVW
observation, with much warmer air around LBB. In addition, a
substantial boundary-layer CU field is evident on visible imagery,
from the Abilene/Snyder area northwestward to the ongoing supercell.


Given the orientation of the instability gradient and time of day,
the cell may tend to turn right/south, favoring renewed development
toward the theta-e axis. Although a due-southeast motion would bring
the cell into Lubbock later this evening, it is entirely possible
the cell remains to the west due to dropping temperatures nearby.

..Jewell.. 04/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7EzGHytgNXPNWOf9rnFdZYA9afRvrd6ZkLB19HttFcMwdWzqXUPKzihZ2PCz-oWbO7pRnDY9v= ADlOFRsviYQEZkfXP8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...

LAT...LON 34010229 33950214 33830200 33550160 33350166 33240179
33130204 33190224 33840241 34010229=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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