• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0561

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 25 20:46:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 252045
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252044=20
    TXZ000-252215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0561
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

    Areas affected...the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173...

    Valid 252044Z - 252215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A localized very large hail threat should be confined to
    the Trans-Pecos and adjacent Pecos Valley into early evening.

    DISCUSSION...A slow-moving supercell has been drifting east, west of
    Fort Stockton. Additional storm-development appears likely to be
    delayed until early evening or later based on recent visible
    satellite and HRRR trends. 19Z observed sounding at Midland sampled
    weak 0-3 km shear/SRH, limiting low-level hodograph curvature.
    Still, adequate speed shear through the buoyancy layer will support
    large to very large hail potential with the supercell or two that
    anchor near the higher terrain. As low-level southeasterlies
    increase in the next few hours, additional storms may develop north
    into far southeast NM.

    ..Grams.. 04/25/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-a_SJTAskPue_G1zDJuSxHF-g7qwdZLmzb6hGwlFteaB39tSeCyf9Y9fE0jePyZnUWHpM35Pd= NHB3RVh-ML1TdT4D4g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31580316 30880275 30640291 30650345 30720392 31170423
    31980430 31860343 31580316=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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