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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0560

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 25 20:22:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 252020
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252019=20
    TXZ000-252145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0560
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0319 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

    Areas affected...the TX South Plains

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 172...

    Valid 252019Z - 252145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues.

    SUMMARY...Greatest potential for a slow-moving, long-lived intense
    supercell will be across the Texas South Plains portion of WW 172,
    along a largely west/east-oriented outflow boundary.

    DISCUSSION...Initial sustained supercell development has been
    drifting east over Bailey County, with additional incipient cells to
    its east towards Plainview. Surface/low-level convergence will
    remain maximized near the TX/NM border over the next couple hours,
    which should support further intensification of this ongoing
    activity. With only around 20-kts of 0-3 km shear per the Lubbock
    VWP, very large hail should remain the overarching threat in the
    near term, potentially reaching baseball to softball size. But
    strengthening of low-level east-southeasterlies should commence in
    the next couple hours. A corresponding increase in tornado potential
    is expected into early evening with ingest of mid 60s surface dew
    points from the Low Rolling Plains. Given weak large-scale ascent,
    convection should remain discrete enough into this time frame to
    support potential for a strong tornado in the most intense/mature
    supercell anchored along the mesoscale outflow boundary.

    ..Grams/Smith.. 04/25/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4pk5zcXcO7s8CCGRz9sU9HyjXAPgJ0FXD4nCqFXwlbsGm3SGN7axcr5ksdyK0ubhMVj_wjlpE= ENDHSWZYf8O5wwtHZc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...

    LAT...LON 34080287 34180228 34160204 34120170 34020123 33760075
    33510068 33220083 33070100 33010138 33120183 33400212
    33650254 33810291 34080287=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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