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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0558

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 25 17:46:22 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 251745
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251744=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-251945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0558
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

    Areas affected...the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 251744Z - 251945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A few splitting supercells should develop by late
    afternoon. Large hail to around baseball size will be the primary
    threat. A tornado or two is also possible in the early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Incipient Cbs are forming over the Davis Mountains
    within the gradient of rich low-level moisture across much of west
    TX. These cells should become sustained in the next hour but may
    initially remain anchored to the terrain with still moderate MLCIN
    over the Pecos Valley. But by late afternoon, storms should
    propagate off the terrain as MLCIN is minimized. Weak low-level flow
    initially is yielding a nearly straight-line hodograph with
    increasing speed shear within the buoyancy layer. Most CAM guidance
    has signaled a predominant splitting supercell scenario with
    left-movers accelerating north-northeastward. Given this along with
    a more mixed environment relative to farther north, very large hail
    and localized severe gusts may be the primary hazards. Overall storm
    coverage should be isolated but may develop off the Sacramento
    Mountains as well, especially as a west TX low-level jet strengthens
    in the early evening. This could also support potential for a
    tornado or two.

    ..Grams/Smith.. 04/25/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7DyJXASuwzNh5vnVDiMdLVQ1Qn_jhCdn_8TYFOHI3KPl5At_Sj6g8Xv6dVr0jgHN69R0p0KvF= Qzb-5kDLw0478g2YF4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30180384 30230317 30570269 31300228 31940213 32380223
    32660242 32650294 32940363 32850422 32240436 30440453
    30180384=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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