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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0552

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 25 01:16:10 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 250114
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250113=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-250245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0552
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0813 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

    Areas affected...Southeastern Colorado into Western Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169...

    Valid 250113Z - 250245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat across WW 169 continues into the
    evening, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.
    Some downstream watch extensions may be necessary as a linear
    convective segment matures moving into western Kansas.

    DISCUSSION...The severe weather threat for WW 169 continues this
    evening, particularly across northern portions of the watch area in southeastern Colorado, as thunderstorm clusters have begun to
    loosely organize into a linear convective segment. While the overall
    coverage of severe storms has been low thus far, SPC surface
    mesoanalysis data show MUCAPE increasing with eastward extent,
    coupled with deep-layer bulk shear of 40-45 kts. This should support
    continued organization of the linear convective complex as it moves
    into western Kansas, shifting gradually from a hail/wind threat to a
    primarily damaging wind threat later into the evening.

    ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!92HmRjiwD7ujsbQ6rYtS_GwnzrD8G0uKsHv93Qp3m1RLiHCXAuCPvhlfbozyMcfXjLAgs3D8_= ugxo0w3MyvxUvMcwe8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 38870450 39100437 39180382 39350345 39510309 39840281
    39810216 39730181 39440154 39160138 38880137 38700140
    38460154 38100177 37930204 37780235 37660270 37660310
    37820363 38200410 38490434 38870450=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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