ACUS11 KWNS 250008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250007=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-250130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma into far southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

Valid 250007Z - 250130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat for all hazards (hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado or two) continues across WW 170, particularly
where supercells have developed and begun to move east-southeast
across portions of northern Oklahoma. This threat will continue into
the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Supercells along the Kansas/Oklahoma border have taken
on an east-southeast storm motion as mid and low-level mesocyclones
have matured. These storms are capable of all hazards, having
already produced 2.5" hail and a tornado.=20

VAD wind profiles from KDDC and KVNX don't show an overall abundance
of storm-relative helicity, but do indicate some curvature of the
hodograph in the lowest levels. Additionally, current surface
mesoanalysis indicates these storms exist within an area of locally
enhanced surface vorticity. With the onset of the nocturnal
low-level jet, in addition to the observed southeastward storm
motion, SRH is expected to increase into the early evening and
support a continued threat for all hazards, including tornadoes. The
greatest short-term threat for continued tornado development will be
with the southeastern-most storm, with unimpeded inflow and a
favorable storm motion vector. The tornado threat will diminish into
the evening hours as the nocturnal boundary layer stabilizes, but
all supercells will be capable of 2.0+" hail and 65-85 MPH wind
gusts.

..Halbert.. 04/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4PeIsBGWbwkaYGmLZ85yvoYoDG4T1dhJGAwrNhMPrCz0RCuk_wSClMfCpB-EmtxjEDcks2nVT= PvGw0vGMoKw-1KuXDQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 37090027 37300009 37359983 37309940 37199886 37029838
36819810 36649811 36429820 36229839 36179865 36159905
36229940 36369964 36619994 36760014 36930027 37090027=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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