1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0548

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 24 23:35:14 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 242334
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242334=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-250100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0548
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0634 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

    Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles into the TX South Plains

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 167...

    Valid 242334Z - 250100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 167 continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercells with very large hail and tornado potential may
    increase into this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A supercell northeast of Lubbock in Floyd County has
    recently intensified and turned right, with a confirmed tornado at
    around 2315 UTC. Other cells are gradually intensifying across the
    TX Panhandle and South Plains, within a weakly capped and strongly
    unstable (MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg) environment. The 20Z AMA
    sounding was rather dry (with PW of 0.58 inches), but otherwise was
    quite favorable for organized storms with steep midlevel lapse rates
    and favorable deep-layer shear. Some increase in low-level moisture
    quality is expected due to backing surface winds, and multiple
    intense supercells may eventually evolve into early evening.=20

    Any mature supercell within this environment will pose a threat of
    very large hail (possibly baseball-size or larger), given the
    favorable thermodynamic profile. A strengthening low-level jet will
    also enlarge low-level hodographs, resulting in an increasing
    conditional tornado threat with time, if any supercells can
    propagate east-southeastward into an increasingly moist environment.

    ..Dean.. 04/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7INCWXiG-cGwJMzJTpu23vKQbRNhzO5B0BuYcRr-3ps3UMgRTSX7_8o45d1VFOj73SjsmKqq-= RXk0odFRCWdpAVXiEI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 33130204 34270185 34980180 35910191 36380195 36650165
    36710079 35060038 34460028 33700044 33170055 33090155
    33130204=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)