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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0546

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 24 22:12:32 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 242212
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242211=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-242345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0546
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0511 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

    Areas affected...Southwest KS into northwest OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

    Valid 242211Z - 242345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue into early evening,
    with a primary large hail, isolated strong to severe gusts, and
    possibly a tornado.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have developed late this afternoon from far
    northwest OK into southwest KS, in the vicinity of a northwest to
    southeast oriented surface confluence zone. Deep-layer flow is
    rather modest, with effective shear of less than 30 kt per objective mesoanalyses, but the presence of ongoing supercells suggests that
    shear is locally greater near the surface boundary. The
    thermodynamic environment is favorable for hail production, with
    relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near/above 1500
    J/kg. Locally strong to severe gusts will also be possible, given
    the presence of a relatively well-mixed boundary layer. A tornado
    cannot be ruled out, especially with any sustained supercell that
    persists into the evening, when a modest increase in low-level
    shear/SRH is expected across the region.

    ..Dean.. 04/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6H0V34MXNVpf7xilotKmUfVdL97bSXk8R4D2V_xraVwMv4eYM7eME_aZfvZqH_iGIlkrfyL3M= DrU2pEX7R1s1z7UM10$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 36599843 36559941 37000009 37180100 37170109 37450136
    37820130 38190113 38480077 38520041 38409970 37749853
    37709848 37409830 36849829 36599843=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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