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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0545

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 24 21:36:37 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 242136
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242135=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-242330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0545
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0435 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast NE into southwest IA and extreme
    northwest MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 242135Z - 242330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms remain possible into the
    early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have recently intensified near Omaha (with
    reports of hail up to golf ball size noted), with other storms
    ongoing into southeast NE. This convection has developed near a
    surface front and is likely being aided by a convectively enhanced
    midlevel shortwave trough currently moving across eastern NE.
    Heating into the 70s F near the front has allowed for MLCAPE to
    increase to near 1000 J/kg, while veering flow with height (as noted
    on the KOAX VWP) will continue to support some storm organization,
    including continued potential for a supercell or two.=20

    Large hail and locally gusty winds are expected to be the most
    common hazards with the strongest storms into early evening.
    However, given the presence of a surface boundary and modestly
    enhanced low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH near 100 m2/s2), a
    tornado also cannot be ruled out. With the threat potentially being
    rather limited in coverage and duration, the need for watch issuance
    is uncertain, but trends will be monitored for an uptick in coverage
    of organized storms.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QDWnIryiGmVbHkxWv5TcsxbBxg5bE_SoyRRN287IU_n1WGEepsBzLWyV6TesA8p6IQ1Vs-lA= PilYjfm02lhdNmmX8Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...

    LAT...LON 41819421 41029407 40369564 40069745 40449759 41149639
    41499602 41839518 41819421=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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