ACUS11 KWNS 242045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242045=20
KSZ000-COZ000-242245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Areas affected...eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 242045Z - 242245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Some instances of severe hail and gusty winds possible
this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing near and south of the
Denver metro this afternoon. Moisture in this region is limited,
with dew points in the upper 40s to 50s. Nonetheless, ongoing
convection will have potential to produce instances of mainly
sub-severe hail given steep lapse rates and cooling aloft.=20

As this development and any additional development shifts further
south and east, it will enter a region with temperatures in the low
to mid 70s and dew points in the low to mid-50s near the CO/KS
border MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 30-35
kts is observed in surface objective analysis as of 20z. This
environment may support some increase in coverage and intensity,
with better potential for severe hail and wind. Trends will be
monitored for potential watch issuance this evening.

..Thornton/Smith.. 04/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_aP7I6loWVOjwxZYeYPVzkkPxiqmRkl8c3Pp4dokWTe9yH0t6FLFm_H6RpTradNqqXC7ofm8K= E0HcladX2lJkA5aBsY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37030326 37460387 37930437 38590496 38880524 39470542
39900539 40100510 40270480 40410445 40480405 40480392
40030306 39660264 39290235 38850211 38370200 37610203
37200209 37040243 37020316 37030326=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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