ACUS11 KWNS 241906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241906 COR
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-242100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0541
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20
Valid 241906Z - 242100Z
CORRECTED FOR TEXT ERORR
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected by 21-23z, capable of
all hazard (tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind). A Tornado
Watch will be be needed later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Cu development has steadily increased across the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. MLCIN eroding with
daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid 70s. Supercell development is expected along the surface dryline and near Cap Rock
between 21-23z.=20
With additional daytime heating, a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg will be in place across much of the TX/OK Panhandles. Shear
profiles are sufficient, with deep layer shear around 30-35 kts.
This will support robust scattered discrete supercell development,
with potential for very large hail (some 2-3+") initially, given
steep low to mid-lapse rates. A more favorable corridor for
tornadoes is possible from areas near Amarillo to the Cap Rock
northeastward to the OK line. Within this region, backed surface
flow will support larger low-level curvature of hodographs. This in
combination with enhanced surface vorticity along the differential
heating boundary and near the dryline may result in a tornado or two
towards the late afternoon/evening. A Tornado Watch will likely be
needed this afternoon to cover this potential.
..Thornton/Smith.. 04/24/2025
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6pKEBm9Ojq1G5pe5U0d-xL1EgPT53eicOsdIck5WkR5MD-PpQxp09GoylyHFgdCwIhz-E1edP= 9nCOa63owV_aGMa2q8$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34800260 35700265 36470279 36760277 36940260 37020165
36970092 36930046 36900021 36790004 36150002 35830005
35420001 35160000 34830002 34490003 33900013 33620048
33530095 33450143 33440191 33480222 33520249 33580259
33660259 34800260=20
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
=3D =3D =3D
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