ACUS11 KWNS 240710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240710=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-240915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165...

Valid 240710Z - 240915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated potential for severe wind gusts is expected to
continue over parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas late
tonight into the early morning. The threat should become marginal,
and weather watch issuance appears unlikely to the east of WW 165.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Frederick,
Oklahoma shows a line of strong thunderstorms from southwest
Oklahoma into northwest Texas. This line is located near the
northwestern edge of a moist airmass, along a north-to-south axis of
moderate instability. Ahead of the path of the convective line, the
RAP is estimating MLCAPE from 500 to 1500 J/kg. In addition, water
vapor imagery and RAP analysis suggest that a low-amplitude
shortwave trough is moving through the southern and central Plains.
Large-scale ascent, along with the instability and low-level warm
advection, is supporting the convective line. The DYX WSR-88D VWP
has some directional shear in the lowest 3 kilometers and has 0-6 km
shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This should be enough to continue
an isolated wind-damage threat along and ahead of the stronger parts
of the line over the next couple of hours. However, the line will
move eastward into weak instability, which will likely marginalize
the severe threat.

..Broyles.. 04/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-lGGt_yeRyHM9EfeH4x51QzEIHOXysxkf3KNbyuGKVICtx47XgHIZ1u3a69jTk7Qu-X4iPCiP= pu17RIG_McbdpZP6T8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32969768 33049906 33299959 33599964 34279914 34989885
35059802 34499631 34009601 33459607 33029644 32969768=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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