ACUS11 KWNS 240330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240330=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-240530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...TX South Plains into western north TX and southwest
OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164...

Valid 240330Z - 240530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe storms will continue late this evening
and potentially into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...Some upscale growth is underway with a storm cluster
southeast of Amarillo, with evidence of accelerating and expanding
outflow, and development of new storms to the northeast of the
primary bowing segment. A 79 mph gust was recently measured near
Silverton, TX with this cluster. This evolution is likely being
aided by a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet, as observed in
recent VWPs from KLBB. In the short term, supercells embedded within
this cluster will continue to pose a threat of large to very large
hail and perhaps a tornado, while some increase in severe-wind
potential could accompany the growing cold pool.=20

Longer-term evolution of this cluster remains uncertain, as it
encounters greater downstream CINH with time. However, if the cold
pool can continue to grow and organize, and potentially encompass
ongoing semi-discrete cells to the east of Lubbock, then some severe
threat will spread into parts of western north TX and southwest OK
late this evening into the early overnight. Depending on short-term observational trends, local watch extension and/or new watch
issuance may need to be considered prior to the Midnight CDT
expiration time of WW 164.

..Dean/Guyer.. 04/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Cb1AJXT7l2keWXc9th2ZppHAKJbMLmZmOeSHcBUm9R-rIoHiuIYw7rH_qUIsiyv9c6H9iwsx= 8aNK8Sl4CtOtX7CjEU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 32990038 33130095 33970242 34370252 35000100 35099924
33949875 33309872 32969929 32909996 32990038=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)