ACUS11 KWNS 240233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240233=20
TXZ000-240400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0536
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...TX Trans-Pecos into parts of the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162...

Valid 240233Z - 240400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may continue into late
evening.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is ongoing this evening to the
southeast of Fort Stockton. A gradual weakening trend has been noted
over the last hour, potentially due to gradually increasing MLCINH
with the onset of nocturnal cooling. However, favorable
boundary-layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is
supporting moderate to locally strong buoyancy (as noted on the 00Z
MAF and DRT soundings), with MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.
Meanwhile, deep-layer shear (aided by a subtropical jet) remains
favorable for organized convection. Some potential remains for an
uptick in storm intensity through late evening, aided by increasing
low-level southeasterly flow (as noted in recent VWPs from KDFX).
Any notable uptick could be accompanied by at least a
low-probability threat for all severe hazards, though it remains
uncertain if organized convection can become reestablished within an increasingly capped environment.

..Dean.. 04/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6RN9_pTNXLXwJWdX7eMShlEtUHYjBEif9IhU1DxKzqeq3epTL0wXEbDv43PqewQEFyoauvQOe= Y2VhVjqPtw-3KlzpQc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 31070248 31110138 31010048 30140044 29580077 29510107
29520148 29620221 29770290 30180282 31070248=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)