ACUS11 KWNS 240045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240045=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-240215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0535
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...TX South Plains into the OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164...

Valid 240045Z - 240215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado
will continue through mid evening.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells has developed early this
evening to the southwest of Amarillo and northwest of Lubbock. The
environment (as sampled in the 00Z AMA sounding) continues to be
characterized by steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and
sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization. Recent VWPs from
KAMA also depict increasing flow in the lowest 2 km, associated with
a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. This increase in
low-level flow will help to maintain ongoing storms through mid
evening, with some additional development possible within a modestly
confluent regime across the TX/OK Panhandles, and also near any
expanding outflow associated with ongoing storms.=20

Large to very large hail (with 3+ inch hail recently reported near
Dimmitt, TX) will continue to be a short-term threat, given the
favorable thermodynamics and storm mode. Strengthening low-level
shear/SRH, backed surface winds, and increasing boundary-layer
moisture may also support some tornado threat with any supercells
this evening that remain semi-discrete and not undercut by outflow.
Strong to severe gusts will also be possible in the vicinity of
ongoing storms and related outflow.=20

Farther south, an earlier left-moving supercell has weakened to the
east of Hobbs, NM, but storm development/intensification remains
possible along the outflow associated with this storm cluster
through mid evening as it moves north-northeastward.

..Dean.. 04/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7xvH62nWmUP4gB4bAoqZchz3DLjoOP9Jl2BLA5oMmtOWFPXJww1udbG20fe0Kijccji9n7pZ_= BdxKNKr0REOGjX2G3E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36090043 34430086 33120156 33000279 33060296 33670290
34190291 35780232 36700137 36660076 36090043=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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