ACUS11 KWNS 232152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232152=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-232345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0530
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles...TX South Plains/Permian
Basin...extreme eastern NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 232152Z - 232345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe storms are possible into
this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Storm initiation appears to be underway as of 2130 UTC
across the northern TX into the OK Panhandle, with increasing
cumulus noted farther south into the western TX Panhandle and far
eastern NM. Strong heating beneath steep midlevel lapse rates has
resulted in the development of moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE
generally in the 1500-2500 J/kg range per modified soundings and
recent objective mesoanalyses. While large-scale ascent is generally
modest, continued heating within the uncapped environment will
support isolated to widely scattered storm development from late
this afternoon into the evening.=20

Midlevel flow is not particularly strong, but some veering of flow
with height is supporting 25-35 kt of effective shear, sufficient
for development of organized multicells and perhaps a couple of
supercells. Steep midlevel lapse rates and rather strong upper-level
flow will result in hail potential with any sustained storms across
the region. Strong to severe outflow gusts will also be possible
within the steep lapse-rate environment. Some increase in low-level
shear/SRH is expected this evening across the TX/OK Panhandles,
which could eventually support a conditional tornado threat if any
supercells can persist across that area.=20

Watch issuance is possible if observational trends support
development of multiple sustained severe storms into this evening.

..Dean/Guyer.. 04/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5GE_tPjBS52J7vZ121o05-uSxiWaaqHnVWwiv1Ovxmdd9bmQ4BsDIgJ1vGq55aUJWUb-0pF_G= rbVcS7oxn4fiLpuNvg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 32780297 34100317 34820322 35190317 35650306 36250272
36740224 36890151 36950088 36940061 35820040 33890032
32840053 32650081 32300165 32160247 32240273 32780297=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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