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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0529

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 23 21:45:32 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 232144
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232143=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-232315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0529
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0443 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

    Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Nebraska into central
    Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 232143Z - 232315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and gusts may accompany multicells
    and left-splitting supercells into the evening hours. A WW issuance
    is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of multicells, with a history of producing
    marginally severe hail/gusts, continues to propagate northward into
    a buoyant airmass. Deep-layer tropospheric lapse rates exceed 8 C/km
    amid 35+ kts of effective bulk shear per 21Z mesoanalysis. Regional
    VADs ahead of the ongoing storms depict relatively straight
    hodographs, suggesting that multicells and perhaps splitting
    supercells will remain the dominant mode of convection, with severe
    wind/hail the main threats. Given weak forcing for ascent, storm maintenance/rejuvenation will rely on cold pool propagation.
    Nonetheless, several more hours of adequate surface heating should
    allow for the propagation of stronger cells into at least central
    IA. Given the expected isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW
    issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/23/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7z-vsUTgDgYHE5Vl0t6UeQu5qVU7WLgNKCvTkGzoxvwCqY0m3jmB4jAzCiE-eCbgntcXUTJSo= vj2fvRYvg_Cj0FnGZA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 40809674 41799627 42289554 42719395 42629281 42039261
    41269280 40729353 40419465 40369551 40439626 40809674=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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