ACUS11 KWNS 231915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231914=20
TXZ000-232115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Areas affected...far southwestern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 231914Z - 232115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Risk for gusty winds and large hail possible this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is observed across the Davis
Mountains and ahead of the surface dryline across far western Texas. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s which has led to
weakening of MLCIN across the region. Convective initiation should
occur in the next 1-2 hours. Ahead of the dryline, MLCAPE around
1000-2000 J/kg with deep layer shear around 35-40 kts. This will
support supercells capable of large hail (some very large) and
damaging winds, given steep lapse rates around 8-9 C/km. A watch may
be needed in the coming hour.
..Thornton/Hart.. 04/23/2025
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4bRJOjF2787nbFYSTsPu4ubz3w3R7yOqfDyrIyW8eleUdeJv713IEvir4tORmLUO58NExB80P= FSOrKvztVwCoQOYWRo$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30330471 30990414 31950309 32260227 32150132 31850105
31120102 30030192 29950220 29710318 29590373 29610402
29750447 30330471=20
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
=3D =3D =3D
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