ACUS11 KWNS 230716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230716=20
TXZ000-230915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...South-central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161...

Valid 230716Z - 230915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and potential for severe gusts will likely
continue for a couple more hours. Hailstones greater than 2 inches
in diameter will be possible. Weather watch issuance downstream of
WW 161 may need to be considered.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar data from Laughlin Air
Force Base shows a line of strong thunderstorms, with an intense
supercell located at the southern end 60 statute miles to the east
of Del Rio. This line is located along the northwestern edge of a
moist airmass, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s.
This line is near an axis of moderate instability. It is being
supported by a shortwave trough that is moving through west-central
Texas, evident on water vapor imagery. In addition, RAP analysis has
an axis of steep mid-level lapse rates across southwest Texas, where
700-500 mb lapse rates are estimated to be near 8 C/Km. This, in
combination with about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear, evident on the
WSR-88D VWP near Del Rio, will be favorable for supercells
associated with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible. A wind-damage potential will also exist.
Although the severe threat may continue for another hour or two, the
storms are expected to gradually weaken as a cap builds across
south-central Texas. Weather watch issuance downstream of WW 161
remains uncertain.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4z1TytWS-LWu3hUFGcc3Wf-cW07UsSW1blh-q2SDXZRznwlpqcyH_5njSW03kVNjmav0oTmdu= Ol-LR4lS5SDx8LMGsI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29549889 29759951 29599987 29339998 29019997 28109942
27889881 28229819 28719815 29139839 29549889=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)