ACUS11 KWNS 230633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230632=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-230830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0524
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...North Texas...Far Southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161...

Valid 230632Z - 230830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and hail threat may continue for a
couple more hours across parts of north Texas. Weather watch
issuance downstream of WW 161 appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Frederick,
Oklahoma shows a line of strong to severe thunderstorms about 25
statute miles to the west of Wichita Falls, Texas. This line is
located at the northwestern edge of a moderately unstable airmass.
Ahead of the MCS, the RAP has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg extending
northward from the Texas Hill Country into parts of north Texas. The instability, along with large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave
trough over northwest Texas, will help the line to be maintained
over the next couple of hours. Downstream of the convection, the 07Z
RAP forecast sounding at Wichita Falls has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to
35 knot range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth shows some directional shear in the boundary layer. This shear environment
could be enough to maintain an isolated wind-damage threat over the
next couple of hours. However, the longevity of the line may be
negatively impacted by a capping inversion that is expected to
rebuild over time. Also, outflow associated with the line has surged
out ahead of the reflectivity, which could be problematic concerning
a longer duration severe threat.

..Broyles.. 04/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7HlEzsIbFTQo8JXGT_8pWLAxSUZsL7_CD3Uj_tdIpIXSaPf8o6qYO9jg1Z0_Vnh5k50JA0mCF= ECxM1FfDFQ8GTRjT-g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33509898 33099897 32859860 32669747 32689682 33049646
33429642 33789666 34029761 34089843 33869885 33509898=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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