ACUS11 KWNS 230358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230357=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-230530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of northwestern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159...160...

Valid 230357Z - 230530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159, 160
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts may accompany an organized MCS over the next
few hours.

DISCUSSION...An MCS has organized a couple of hours ago, and the
KCDS ASOS measured a southeasterly gust of 47 kts within the
trailing precipitation region, indicating that a localized severe
gust threat may be increasing. This is in agreement with the last
several runs of Warn-on-forecast, which has depicted a severe wind
swath with this MCS along/near the Red River. Given residual MLCAPE
around 2000 J/kg and increasing WAA with a strengthening nocturnal
low-level jet, this MCS may persist, perhaps with severe gusts for
at least a few more hours. Given the approaching expiration time of
the ongoing severe thunderstorm watches, a downstream watch may be
needed pending favorable convective trends against increasing
MLCINH.

..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5oxZjzlzr74HW5lZxgzNBizLdOVxZP31Rp7m_XiKEnEozUItHe_HkSb8iCZQI2zU3oBM0-4v0= ukz5GChJ0-IFYq8ArA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33870160 34440075 34619957 34189851 33549832 33139844
32899918 32939998 33060065 33160093 33420148 33870160=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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