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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0517

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 22 20:28:04 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 222026
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222025=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-222230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0517
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0325 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

    Areas affected...portions of western Oklahoma...south-central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 222025Z - 222230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind and severe hail risk to increase through the afternoon/evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated and expected to
    continue to form along the dryline across the Texas Panhandle this
    afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across
    the frontal boundary draped across western/central Kansas into the
    Oklahoma Panhandle. Ahead of this development, the air mass across
    western Oklahoma into central/eastern Kansas has been suppressed
    owing to weak forcing and stout MLCIN most of the afternoon.
    Temperatures are warming, with MLCIN eroding west to east across the
    Texas Panhandle as temperatures have climbed into the 80s. Aloft
    sounding analysis indicates, steep lapse rates and ample CAPE above
    the 850 mb inversion.

    Thunderstorm activity will gradually shift into this region by late afternoon/evening. A mix of multi-cell clusters and embedded
    supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind are expected. A
    watch will likely be needed in the coming hours to cover this risk.

    ..Thornton/Hart.. 04/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Zl5YcvB0lBjDYRYpaLGVOYPIM0-QMSWgg70x2gn7AaXOS4QuRmWbP6DEsGYmJzCQKNx6nH1x= XkCyBSf1gIIw70gE08$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...

    LAT...LON 35509851 34599879 34269925 34209990 34279999 34999994
    35729994 36779994 37199980 37939913 38309859 38449818
    38439739 38409696 38119653 37569643 37129678 36089793
    35509851=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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