ACUS11 KWNS 221831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221830=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-222130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Areas affected...parts of cntrl/sern LA...srn MS...swrn/cntrl AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221830Z - 222130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm activity and intensity
appears probable through 4-6 PM CDT, with short-lived stronger
storms posing a risk for locally severe hail and wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...As low-amplitude mid-level troughing and more subtle
smaller-scale perturbations progress through weak (on the order of
10-20 kt) west-southwesterly mean flow across the Gulf Coast states,
associated forcing for ascent appears likely to contribute to
increasing thunderstorm development through 21-23Z. Inhibition for
moist boundary-layer parcels (with dew points near 70F) is becoming=20 increasingly negligible with continuing insolation, with modestly
steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates contributing to CAPE around
1500-2000+ J/kg.=20=20

Despite the rather modest to weak low-level and deep-layer shear,
thunderstorms are likely to continue to slowly intensify within the destabilizing environment, into and beyond peak daytime heating.=20
Stronger updraft pulses may eventually pose increasing potential to
produce severe hail and damaging downbursts. As convection begins
to consolidate and become more widespread, this threat should
diminish, but strengthening convective outflow may continue to pose
potential for gusty/locally damaging winds into early evening.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6K2vCtc5dLE393V4bo2FSyb8izxEs16rVBE75JQe-coUpWJ8WTIsI4YBmJ0zRCabm-giOy-Wk= onJGmC2jsIAHgRrYYU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 33068817 33028748 31578743 30978923 30369057 30979287
31989295 32309176 31969019 33068817=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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