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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0510

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 21 04:45:19 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 210444
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210444=20
    INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-210615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0510
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1144 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

    Areas affected...east Arkansas...northwest Tennessee...far west Kentucky...southeast Illinois...and southwest Indiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 156...158...

    Valid 210444Z - 210615Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 156, 158 continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to slowly move east overnight.
    The tornado threat in Arkansas has sufficiently diminished to allow
    Tornado Watch #156 to expire at 12 AM CDT. Strong low-level flow may
    support a brief tornado or severe wind gust across Tornado Watch
    #158.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived, mixed-mode convective line continues to
    move east across Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois late this evening.
    Despite a favorable kinematic environment (0-1 km shear of 40-50
    knots and 0-1 km SRH between 300-500 m2/s2), increasing convective
    inhibition and decreasing CAPE have resulted in a general decreasing
    trend in convective intensity. With the upper-/mid-level forcing
    moving farther away, this general decrease in intensity is expected
    to continue.=20

    Given the overall decrease in intensity, especially across Arkansas,
    Tornado Watch #156 will be allowed to expire at 12 AM CDT. Farther
    east/north in Tornado Watch #158, the strength of the kinematic
    environment may support a brief tornado or wind gust, despite the
    increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment.

    ..Marsh.. 04/21/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5IXkKL9EfOWAW9X7JFhH9ai2Ou70vudcugSVnm61lKHovpsGwjuSHn-_ju61M5N7aZ2np9h4Q= IPSkPIDOO3GLAzZzsQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...

    LAT...LON 33869233 36578960 37468906 39148903 38748705 36458803
    34459015 33279176 33869233=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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