ACUS11 KWNS 210254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210254=20
ILZ000-210430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 157...

Valid 210254Z - 210430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 157 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 157. A
couple of severe gusts are the main concern, though a tornado cannot
be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A primary band of convection persists amid very strong
forcing accompanying an approaching surface low and upper-level jet
streak. Despite scant buoyancy, the latest LOT VAD shows a hodograph
with impressive size and curvature, indicating strong low-level wind
shear, driven by very strong flow just above the surface. While
decreasing lightning trends suggest that storms are weakening, the
intense low-level flow/shear suggests that damaging gusts may still
occur wherever downward momentum transport may occur. A tornado also
remains possible if a rotating updraft can ingest any remaining
surface-based buoyancy.

..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__37oK6d0QJdXqNEhI4mAZJIOkg_jWuiStIJdDr5JUv8Q2txVWrGmCBU-da_ggVO5XqP_S4b0= 7hy8dhynvUjxc_yBYw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40568839 40928885 41308911 41708931 41948922 41998888
41828838 41428803 40988774 40608769 40498805 40568839=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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