ACUS11 KWNS 210047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210046=20
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-210215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...eastern Missouri into Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 155...

Valid 210046Z - 210215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 155 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 155.
Strong to severe gusts appear to be the main threat along most of
the line, though tornadoes remain possible, particularly with
supercells.

DISCUSSION...A mature squall line continues to progress eastward
amid a strongly sheared, adequately unstable airmass. A
line-embedded mesovortex across far west-central IL has supported
several estimated/measured severe gusts. While buoyancy ahead of
this portion of the line is beginning to diminish considerably,
strong synoptic forcing and ambient flow aloft will continue to
support mesovortex maintenance and associated strong/severe gust
potential, at least in the near-term. Farther south in southeast MO,
supercells have entered the southwestern-most portions of the watch,
and it is here where short-term tornado potential is greatest.

Given strong kinematic fields in place, despite waning buoyancy, at
least damaging gust potential may persist with the line downstream,
east of the current Tornado Watch, so either a new WW issuance may
be needed, or a spatial extension of the ongoing watch may be
warranted.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/21/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Zmtv4WEbaNKowmikR4lM9RUwVFcXNvufov19A_gLpDRgunl_uhtiAX4u2rk2iIY_jQS9dkd-= _o8KQCt2n-0ETIUAgQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 36589107 37449084 39749049 40189062 40929107 41439127
41759097 41739019 41378915 40918861 39968815 38858800
37828812 37018841 36488904 36478985 36499042 36589107=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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