ACUS11 KWNS 202240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202240=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-210015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Missouri into
western Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...155...

Valid 202240Z - 210015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154, 155 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches
154-155. Severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes remain the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...A pronounced QLCS has matured over the last several
hours given increased deep-layer ascent with a strengthening surface
cyclone. Several damaging/severe gusts have been observed (including
measured gusts exceeding 55 kts in spots), along with multiple
possible tornadoes. Ahead of the QLCS, a 60 kt southerly low-level
jet persists per 21Z mesoanalysis, providing ample momentum for
downward transport of strong to severe winds to the surface,
supporting the potential for damaging gusts. Strong low-level shear
remains in place, so a QLCS tornado threat remains with any
mesovortices that develop. Currently, two predominant segments of
the QLCS present a locally higher damaging gust/tornado threat given
the prevalence of ongoing mesovortices.

..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6IkSzWy0XjtVJjUPCAiQCk8FQTbykGrctApPXWaQVuhPKGHg3f_r4aqWcV_AKXKRzFx1FfDqK= ZqF9tgNarzMmJthXW8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 36659273 38339276 39109269 40499223 41089173 41199058
40919008 40188970 39528964 38808974 37989021 37359058
36929090 36659125 36549158 36579237 36659273=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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