ACUS11 KWNS 201921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201920=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-202115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into western Illinois and far
southeastern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 201920Z - 202115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be forthcoming for portions of
eastern Missouri into western Illinois and far southeastern Iowa, as
a warm frontal boundary continues to lift northward out of central
Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Breaks in cloud cover, along with a northward-lifting
surface warm frontal boundary, have resulted in continued
destabilization across eastern Missouri into western Illinois. With
mixed-layer CAPE forecast to exceed 1000 J/kg in the presence of
strong wind shear (and strong curvature of the low-level hodograph
in the vicinity of the front), the tornado threat is expected to
increase this afternoon into the evening hours.=20

Ongoing storms along the MO/KS/OK borders are forecast to continue
north and east into the new watch area, with supercells embedded
within a largely linear complex. Any embedded supercells (especially
any within the vicinity of the warm front), as well as any
pre-frontal storms, will have access to an environment characterized
by strong low-level shear/streamwise vorticity supportive of tornado development. Current VAD wind profiles from KLSX show 200 m^2/s^2 of
0-500m storm relative helicity -- nearly double what is shown in the
current SPC Mesoanalysis. Given the environmental support for
tornadoes, some of which may be strong, a tornado watch is
anticipated within the next hour or two.

..Halbert/Goss.. 04/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7GOzhpwaglVeSULUi6wTDhUstbzvIe3dF4MxqbwoRMjOem9BvVENVZ0thiRMxkG0XbjlPa3FW= 9n2ttFTyYo8YIE9Gg0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 41249043 41119012 40788991 40498976 39178955 38668947
38138943 37538936 37258941 36988946 36868967 36749007
36709052 36679128 36699176 36819216 36939224 37269227
38759232 39489239 40199248 40619251 41139238 41309216
41289125 41249043=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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