ACUS11 KWNS 201718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201717=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-201915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...ArkLaTex into western/central Arkansas and
southwest Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...

Valid 201717Z - 201915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat tornadoes, some potentially strong, and swaths
of damaging winds will increase through the afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...A surface low currently deepening in eastern Oklahoma
should continue to track northeast along with a potent, compact
shortwave trough in the southern Plains. Morning satellite imagery
shows expansive cloud cover in parts of eastern Oklahoma with
greater coverage in central/northern Missouri. However, there are
areas of clearing in central/northern Arkansas and
southwest/south-central Missouri. Visible satellite continues to
show a general breakdown of boundary layer rolls into cumulus
clouds. This matches with forecast soundings suggesting diminishing
MLCIN in the areas of greatest heating.

As storm continue to develop/intensity along the cold front and near
the surface low, the severe threat will gradually increase into the
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields should continue to
strengthen, particularly in northern Arkansas into Missouri, as the
surface low deepens. This will support a threat for tornadoes--some
of which could be strong. A small supercell near an effective warm
front in Camden County, MO will pose the greatest short-term tornado
threat if it can remain anchored to the boundary. While the shear
vector orientation to the cold front will support some discrete
elements, forcing from the shortwave trough within a weakly capped
airmass will also tend to promote several linear segments capable of
swaths of wind damage.

..Wendt/Goss.. 04/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8n_yf7PNf8IMcIT6NJULaXf-PB5Xnpskzxy9Fho7BVRoy_sawDRDEEAz8VHpsN6xNnltZ0Lv1= DKrSfLatAbzAjgOsYc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON 32849491 35629534 36589520 38239351 38709276 38899215
38729176 38309148 37249186 34599241 32849349 32429414
32849491=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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