ACUS11 KWNS 200623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200622=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-200715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Northwest Arkansas...Far
Southwest Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 152...

Valid 200622Z - 200715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 152 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and tornadoes will move
across eastern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas over the next
few hours. The threat is expected to eventually affect far southwest
Missouri, where weather watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Tulsa shows
a north-to-south oriented severe line segment across eastern
Oklahoma. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F.
Near the moist axis, an axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP
with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg range. Co-located with the instability
axis, the RAP is analyzing a 50 to 60 knot 700 mb jet from northeast
Texas into southeast Oklahoma. This line of storms is located near
the nose of this jet max. Short-term model forecasts strengthen the
jet max and move it into eastern Oklahoma over the next few hours.
This will provide lift and strong shear favorable for severe
maintenance.

The latest WSR-88D VWP from Fort Smith has 0-6 km shear around 65
knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 550 m2/s2. This will
continue to support a QLCS with embedded rotating elements. These
stronger storms will be associated with severe wind gusts, and
potentially tornadoes. The threat is expected to persist for several
more hours. The line should eventually move into northwest Arkansas
and far southwest Missouri where instability will be more limited.

..Broyles.. 04/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!65tm7rLEsegM5fyj2rWyOG-FSrWC8aLITDZtUT7-QmGw2sW6ayqKQ_PghlC7SeP_Xmo38goC9= 9aCq35fHOc9Cz48D7k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 36759496 36469540 36109556 35429576 34399591 34119581
34019538 34419453 35089380 35649329 35999305 36279305
36629323 36809384 36759496=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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