ACUS11 KWNS 200458
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200458=20
TXZ000-200630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 151...

Valid 200458Z - 200630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 151 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 151. QLCS
tornadoes are possible, and a swath of severe winds is also
possible. A few gusts could exceed 75 mph.

DISCUSSION...A progressive linear segment, embedded within a broader
persistent elongated convective system (PECS), continues to rapidly
track eastward toward a moderately unstable airmass (characterized
by 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE). This segment is showing both QLCS
circulations, and bowing segments with a pronounced rear-inflow jet
(evident via cross-sectional analysis of KSJT radar data). In
addition to favorable buoyancy, stronger mid-level flow (and
associated 60+ kt deep-layer shear vectors) are oriented slightly
more orthogonal to the line segment compared to northern parts of
the PECS. As this segment progresses into the 45-55 kt low-level
jet, bowing segments and mesovortices should persist with both a
tornado and severe gust threat. Some of the latest runs of
Warn-on-Forecast output suggest that a focused severe wind swath may
occur with this segment, and a couple of 75+ mph gusts cannot be
ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9oeOzLIYRgTqSuzahAog_uD4OI1w7RUo-5Pqf7FpHKDvy64XseEFx3UFf_608vUjFrMMvWcGe= kFaYagB98gNICr_wKk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30540105 31280075 31630008 31539911 31119870 30529898
30239970 30290053 30540105=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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