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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0492

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 20 02:22:20 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 200220
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200220=20
    TXZ000-200315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0492
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0920 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

    Areas affected...Edwards Plateau Region

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 200220Z - 200315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue across the Edwards
    Plateau region. New WW is warranted by 03z.

    DISCUSSION...Leading edge of strong large-scale ascent is spreading
    across west TX. Cold front has recently surged through Fort Stockton
    and convection is expected to increase along the boundary as it
    advances east. Stalled synoptic front is currently draped from near Stephenville-San Angelo into Upton County. VAD profile from SJT
    exhibits very strong ESRH along the north side of the boundary, but
    substantial ESRH exists across the warm sector as well. LLJ is
    expected to increase ahead of the short wave over the next few
    hours, and a marked increase in convection is expected across the
    Edwards Plateau as forcing overspreads this region. While the
    primary storm mode may become more linear in nature, there is some
    concern for tornadoes with supercells that currently exist, and with
    embedded circulations along the forced line. New watch will likely
    issued by 03z to account for this evolution.

    ..Darrow/Smith.. 04/20/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8UZhcjkMIZKgzjW8Pvtvk5DNZvGSWQzScQXqNepdLuIyqaoRt3Zfhak_sCOWYiR2PU9G6h_FA= 8PHYur49Ve9WQAdL8Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31130213 32109961 31389914 30770159 31130213=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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