ACUS11 KWNS 200201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200201=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-200330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...portions of extreme north Texas into southern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 149...

Valid 200201Z - 200330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat should continue with ongoing storms
along the Red River into southern OK over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Several strong to severe thunderstorms are growing
upscale into an MCS along the Red River, and these storms are poised
to advance east-northeast across southern OK over the next few
hours. An embedded, sustained supercell has recently produced a
tornado in Love County, OK, and tornado potential is expected to
continue with this storm, even if it morphs into a bowing/LEWP
structure. Regional VADs depict large, curved hodographs across
central TX/OK, and adequate surface based buoyancy remains in place. Furthermore, the 01Z Warn-on-Forecast run depicts continued swaths
of stronger 0-2 km updraft helicity, indicative of longer-term
low-level rotation potential with the ongoing storms. Given the
strong low-level shear in place, a strong tornado remains possible.

..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7oTnrAsdkwM6tgtDFAxsiGlBdhsQJrKJPvZcsxYGOo_w93oZzdLFFdaHnTgIKcyR7gg7ipqMv= jXp6YtUBEAjIghIM40$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33639787 34299729 34979653 35109589 34859547 34389545
33899616 33689704 33589738 33639787=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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