ACUS11 KWNS 200127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200127=20
TXZ000-200300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0827 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 149...

Valid 200127Z - 200300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues.

SUMMARY...An uptick in the tornado threat may be underway over
southern portions of Tornado Watch 149. The extent of the tornado
threat is dependent on further intensification of warm-sector
supercells. A strong tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...Multiple small supercells have gradually organized over
the past couple of hours over portions of central TX within the warm
sector. KFWS NEXRAD data shows a likely low-level mesocyclone
becoming established with a more dominant supercell in Erath County.
These storms are intensifying amid a moist and unstable
surface-based airmass, along the western periphery of an
intensifying low-level jet. Given strong low-level shear in place,
any further intensification with these storms may support tornado
development. Some of the latest WoFs guidance also indicates the
potential for increased low-level rotation with these storms over
the next few hours.

..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4fu1RXZM-CZK4u9jko-EmwxWaCz096--hIyFJC8e50JLCLX78HuJLKtywshShMlDnQQcUmdSQ= zP1b0sXnxjSf0Vsu2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 31969884 32789838 33489790 33519729 33169701 32639725
32059780 31759811 31699848 31969884=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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