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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0487

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 19 23:29:51 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 192329
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192329=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-200100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0487
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0629 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

    Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into southern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 192329Z - 200100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing over northern Texas into
    southern Oklahoma. All severe hazards are possible, though tornado
    potential is largely dependent on efficient surface-based inflow. A
    WW issuance is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Increasing WAA and low-level southerly flow is underway
    over the Red River vicinity, with the intensity and coverage of
    storms also increasing with the approach of a 500 mb jet streak. A
    supercell structure has recently intensified and produced a tornado
    along a baroclinic boundary in Jack County, TX, and this storm
    (along with others that can intensify) are preceded by the terminus
    of a 30+ kt southerly 850 mb jet. In addition to increasing buoyancy
    downstream of these storms, low-level shear is also increasing, with
    the FWS VAD depicting modestly curved and elongated hodographs. Any
    storms that can mature and progress in this environment will be
    capable of producing severe hail/wind. Additional tornadoes may also
    be possible if storms can remain surface-based, and maintain
    relatively unimpeded inflow.

    Given the increasing severe threat, a WW issuance may be needed
    soon.

    ..Squitieri/Smith.. 04/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-gszf82jjFQxtGyaXsys-sEVq3cYQ3hZWfmqXq0jTX661CI4l2h9OQQdRwx_4GHFQOVLC1UrC= Nq1tH0-e6MQ5Wt2U5M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33059786 33679790 34429772 34829706 34899629 34709569
    34069537 33409553 32909601 32549669 32369716 32309785
    32689796 33059786=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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