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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0486

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 19 22:22:03 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 192220
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192220=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-192345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0486
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0520 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

    Areas affected...southeast Ohio into central Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 192220Z - 192345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing this evening along a
    surface-cold front. Despite strong deep-layer shear, modest
    instability should limit the overall severe threat and a watch is
    unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues to move east
    across southern Ohio with a history of producing sporadic tree
    damage. Farther northeast, additional thunderstorms are developing
    along a surface-cold front pushing southeast through Pennsylvania.=20

    The overall environment in which these storms are progressing is
    best characterized by mixed-layer CAPE around 500 J/kg and
    effective-layer shear between 50-60 knots. Model soundings along and
    ahead of these storms suggest maximum mid-level-lapse rates greater
    than 8 C/km within the 500-700-mb layer which would suggest a
    continued threat for some hail and wind.

    Ahead of these thunderstorms, diurnal heating allowed for some
    mixing out of low-level moisture which is contributing to a
    significant reduction in 100-mb mixed-layer CAPE with eastward
    extend. The combination of decreasing instability and the loss of
    diurnal heating should promote an overall decreasing intensity trend
    and preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Marsh/Smith.. 04/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6yOyacijvCma2-q0GDYAVTINLkWczirJRwr1Gz-wvwR_KjXnG0Jh1F74Y0LJh2PpJ03ek7Jm8= 7v0bZTtk4F9TQUBuec$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

    LAT...LON 38638367 39148329 39858220 40468057 40937874 40737761
    40287740 39797777 39107980 38668184 38568292 38638367=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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