ACUS11 KWNS 191926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191925=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-192130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...parts of southern Indiana...northern Kentucky...and southwestern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191925Z - 192130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few stronger storms -- capable producing strong wind
gusts and small hail -- will be possible this afternoon. WW
issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery shows that filtered sunshine
-- and associated afternoon heating -- has occurred over the last
couple of hours, but with an increase in cu/cb at this time --
particularly over southern Indiana. On the western fringe of the
cumuliform cloudiness, radar indicates increasing deep convection
(over far southwestern Indiana) near the cold front, with some
lightning now indicated.

RAP-based objective analysis shows -- aided by the aforementioned
heating -- that mixed-layer CAPE has increased to near/just above
500 J/kg, and with a bit of additional heating destabilization
possible, some increase in convective intensity is expected over the
next couple of hours.

With low-level flow weakly veering, and increasing to 50 kt between
2km and 3km AGL, and in excess of 70 kt at mid levels, shear is
plenty sufficient to aid in convective organization, and associated
potential for strong wind gusts locally. Though coverage of any
severe-weather reports would likely remain sparse, thus negating any
current consideration for WW issuance, we will continue to monitor environmental evolution across the area.

..Goss/Mosier.. 04/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!57loCrmZJ1eWBnh6MWBlNb-jsFcS5vmZVgIyUiJQFuSdNJfJRSQA7X6SRe-3qoSYp8PNcW1zu= mFfF6mCToXDIjxWTqU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 37898660 37938741 38488714 39268587 39918382 39418305
38518373 38328457 37898660=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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