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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0483

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 19 18:58:49 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 191858
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191858=20
    TXZ000-192030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0483
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of western and central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 191858Z - 192030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms capable of large hail (2.00-3.50
    in) and 65-80 MPH winds likely over portions of western and central
    Texas through this evening

    DISCUSSION...Current visible satellite and radar imagery show
    developing thunderstorms along a mostly stationary boundary draped
    SW-NE across western and central Texas. With steep lapse rates and
    80kts of effective bulk shear, supercells capable of large hail
    (2.00-3.50 inch) and damaging winds (65-80 MPH) will develop along
    the boundary and move north and eastward through the afternoon and
    evening. Lack of low-level shear will keep the tornado threat low
    for the moment, though cannot be ruled out as shear increases into
    the evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will be likely within the
    next hour.

    ..Halbert/Mosier.. 04/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-MEP_-l8lL6MW2SX7pSeZ1_JTmAofh497A9iONy0YfS0koOB2vSq5jmj6GIpYSCtbg4eR3S12= WE9QhUSLTU7MaEnL2E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30200249 30430266 30580273 30850263 31620231 32400172
    32850124 33370006 33659940 33789850 33669804 33469756
    33269735 32879727 32459736 31879770 31579806 31249838
    30959867 30519918 30209975 29950033 29800082 29770127
    29850190 29990219 30200249=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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