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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0479

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 19 07:22:20 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 190721
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190721=20
    TXZ000-190915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0479
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

    Areas affected...West-central and North Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 146...

    Valid 190721Z - 190915Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 146
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across west-central
    Texas over the next couple of hours. Large hail and severe gusts
    will the primary threats, but a tornado will also be possible. The
    threat may gradually move east-northeastward into parts of central
    and north-central Texas over the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from San Angelo shows
    a broken line of organized thunderstorms, with a few of the storms
    being severe. The line is located within strong southwest flow
    aloft, and is to the east of a dryline. The RAP has a corridor of
    moderate instability across central Texas, where MUCAPE is estimated
    in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The storms are currently located to
    the west of this corridor, but should gradually move toward the
    western edge of the stronger instability over the next few hours.
    This will help maintain convective development. RAP forecast
    soundings across west-central Texas have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to
    50 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will
    likely continue to support supercells with large hail. The more
    intense cores could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in
    diameter. Isolated severe gusts, along with a tornado will also be
    possible.

    ..Broyles.. 04/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6IPI7sgsQ2Fw-opc4U9BpsNFrkXODZrBDVpTcdKer2vBFbXOPCRy5YACpQlviRAtxuRBaQXeA= lQbTKZ2Pr-t1IDG15M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 29950046 29880098 29950124 30180144 30470142 30900108
    32499965 32929929 33229887 33299855 33259829 33199809
    32969791 32529792 31939830 31089910 30319976 29950046=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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