ACUS11 KWNS 190643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190642=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-190845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Northwest
Arkansas...South-central and Southeastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143...

Valid 190642Z - 190845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue overnight from
eastern Oklahoma northeastward into southeast Missouri. Large hail
and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats, but a tornado
will also be possible. Weather watch issuance, or a local extension
may be needed to the east of the ongoing watch near the 08Z watch
expiration.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a large area of
convection located from northeast Oklahoma northeastward into the
mid Mississippi Valley. This convection is located within southwest
flow aloft near and to the west of a boundary. RAP analysis shows a
low-level jet to the southeast of this convection over the
Ark-La-Tex. Over the next few hours, storm development will be
favored along the northwestern edge of the low-level jet from
northwestern Arkansas into southern Missouri. The latest WSR-88D VWP
at Springfield has strong shear with 0-6 km shear near 65 knots, and
0-3 storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will likely
support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours.
Although isolated supercells will be possible, the mode may tend to
favor short line segments, especially as instability weakens
gradually. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats,
but a tornado will also be possible. As the expiration of WW 143
approaches, either a local extension or new watch will need to be
considered.

..Broyles.. 04/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6PwOlSMPYRpyvF5UCuNi7GFKMw2MqEGa0vFi4GOk8Y2mbBboUlIzNVEyqXtZXbVKwdjGgO4JY= WiMdPRaNNHc5t25KWw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35839554 35369568 34999535 34899446 36229229 36749115
36959090 37239074 37569073 37849095 38039123 38099148
38049198 37729265 36759437 35839554=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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