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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0476

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 19 04:28:40 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 190426
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190426=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-190600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0476
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1126 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

    Areas affected...south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas into
    eastern Oklahoma.

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...

    Valid 190426Z - 190600Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144 continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe weather threat will continue into the overnight
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed late this evening
    across south-central and eastern Oklahoma and into north Texas with
    hail up to golf ball size. A strengthening low-level jet (sampled by
    the KFWS VWP) and continued destabilization via moistening around
    1km and cooling temperatures aloft should continue to support a
    supercell threat into the overnight hours. Large hail will be the
    primary threat, but some tornado threat will continue to exist with
    any storms along and south of the cold front where an STP of 1 to 2
    is present.=20

    Additional severe convection west and north of the ongoing storms
    from Stephens to Cleveland county remains uncertain. The core of the
    low-level jet appears to be focused mostly east of that axis with
    minimal evidence on the KFDR VWP and only modest strengthening at
    1km from KDYX. Therefore, convection will likely be preferred from south-central Oklahoma and eastward, but sufficient elevated
    instability remains across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma
    that additional development is possible.

    ..Bentley.. 04/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7SI7DT_zMLYePTOyYKsVfEwkEigUEoggTmFK2sMlIP0OEohj0c_l11y7MLL39hja0Dvca0Q3O= jTZDCgAh5mnvf0Y6c0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33819820 34389901 34949907 35229859 36249660 36269650
    36519556 36359486 36069466 35459470 34589568 33829665
    33749728 33689783 33819820=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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