ACUS11 KWNS 190136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190135=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-190300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0835 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma...northwest Arkansas...and
southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 190135Z - 190300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase late this evening
and into the overnight period, including the potential for
supercells.

DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop along the front in
northeast Oklahoma this evening. Expect storm coverage to increase
along the front through the evening and into the overnight period as
the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated hail will be the primary
threat north of the front with the potential for large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado along and south of the
front. However, the threat for storms along and on the warm side of
the boundary remains questionable given the boundary orientation and
storm motion.=20

A severe thunderstorm watch may need to be issued to address this
threat continuing into the overnight period.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!46kY9YtpBHh_iF66oh2IC7ecNcTBMPZshHgtIp4vbYeFtJiFm8rAA91ELEJ4gUEnAU-xRDOE0= _udh4oxljYYZtW90MQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35339580 36449493 37259421 38439240 38469125 38099083
37379070 36399092 35689220 34999337 34739426 34819504
34889562 35339580=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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