ACUS11 KWNS 182040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182040=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-182315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Areas affected...north-central Texas and south-central and central
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 182040Z - 182315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat to increase through the afternoon and
evening. All hazards possible including large hail, damaging wind,
and tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates a cold front located from
northeastern through the Oklahoma City metro into southwestern
Oklahoma to northwest Texas as of 20z. A dryline was located from
southwestern Oklahoma into southwestern Texas. Ahead of the front, a
broad area of mid to high level cloud cover has been in place across
of southwestern/central Oklahoma, which has limited stronger daytime
heating in this area. Breaks in the clouds have allowed temperatures
to warm into the upper 70s to 80s across eastern Oklahoma. A
gradient of MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg extends southwest to
northeast across north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma with
strong deep layer shear around 55-65 kts.

Recent runs of CAM guidance indicate potential for storm initiation
across north-central Texas into southwestern Oklahoma at the
intersection of the dryline and cold front. Forecast soundings
indicate elongated largely straight hodographs and steep mid-level
lapse rates, indicative of splitting supercells capable of large to
very large (2-3"+) hail. This would support some potential for a
storm or two to move northward to the cool side of the boundary,
where the tornado threat should be minimal. Where the surface based
warm sector resides, downstream tornado threat may evolve into the
evening as additional development occurs along the cold front and
cells move eastward into more favorable instability and backed
surface winds. A watch or weather watches will be needed in the
coming hours to highlight these potential severe threats.

..Thornton/Smith.. 04/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9tgFlMO9J2scDZ6n2MwaSt8cG7cZhyFMRJOodBCeaX0ne78hnZf1VQhowxuiTD9K4XeGsm9iA= c-UBjWj16y469ABvGk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33130009 33290049 33530054 34350034 34759991 35049899
35159852 35479785 35769718 35809635 35539591 35059579
34319634 33999698 33669769 33319857 33109958 33130009=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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