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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0467

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 18 12:23:09 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 181223
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181222=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-181415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0467
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0722 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

    Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin...Lake Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 142...

    Valid 181222Z - 181415Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 142
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue over the next couple
    of hours from parts of southern Wisconsin eastward over Lake
    Michigan. Significant wind gusts and large hail will be possible
    with the strongest of cells.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from KMKX
    shows a cluster of strong to severe storms over southern Wisconsin,
    with a severe short line segment located about 40 statute miles to
    the west of Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The storms are located along an
    east-to-west gradient of instability, where the RAP is estimating
    MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings to the west of
    Milwaukee still have a temperature inversion from the surface to 850
    mb, with strong effective shear above the inversion. This will
    continue to support elevated supercell development. In addition,
    forecast soundings have steep lapse rates in the 700 to 500 mb
    layer, which will aid a threat for large hail with supercells.
    Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible in the
    more intense cores. The stronger and faster moving line segments
    could also produce severe gusts, with 70+ mph gusts possible. The
    severe threat is expected to become more isolated later this
    morning. To the east of the current watch, watch issuance probably
    won't be needed. Trends will be monitored.

    ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/18/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5f46X1Lg8B_35Pu8qMTk_PhD9cEB0RjEPRmM_ps_fkVo__VqWRkwHv7lf1SQnDhbh1JaAILSt= 4GWFlT5FSWyRBUBEhA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRR...LOT...MKX...ARX...

    LAT...LON 43328623 42978610 42648625 42508658 42488814 42558932
    42619011 42769037 43059037 43369020 43578977 43598821
    43528671 43328623=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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