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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0465

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 18 05:43:10 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 180543
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180542=20
    IAZ000-180815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0465
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1242 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

    Areas affected...Northern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 180542Z - 180815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for marginally severe hail is expected over the
    next few hours across northern Iowa. Weather watch issuance appears
    unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows west to southwest
    flow over the Upper Midwest, with some anticyclonic curvature. In
    spite of some ridging, the RAP suggests a minor shortwave trough is
    moving through Iowa. At the surface, a front extends northeastward
    across central Iowa. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the
    northwest of the front in the vicinity of Sioux City, Iowa. RAP
    forecast soundings to the north of front over much of northern Iowa
    have an inversion up to near 800 mb. MUCAPE is up to 1500 J/kg with
    effective shear in the 50 to 60 knots range. 700-500 mb lapse rates
    are near 8 C/km. As warm advection continues overnight, this
    environment should support elevated supercell development.
    Supercells may be able to produce isolated large hail, but any
    threat is expected to remain isolated.

    ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/18/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5LukTfKmYGRBWZ4avbOcKvJ1wLXraCy0YzU1nI-uQ_UFgwQxshO2_4RNdc0kQXhBuveOCgEA0= uwi7QTNoPFRRgSQaKQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 42289246 42249433 42179531 42229595 42539635 42729641
    42889639 43239600 43429526 43449260 43179150 42459149
    42289246=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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